Research

In almost all developed economies, aggregate fertility rates are below replacement levels and also lower than desired fertility. We investigate the role of biased fertility beliefs—particularly overestimation at younger ages—in explaining these differences, and ask whether assisted reproductive technologies may help increase fertility. Based on insights from a theoretical model highlighting the interactions between biased beliefs, labor productivity, and preferences for children, we build and calibrate a quantitative life-cycle model with biased beliefs and learning about objective fertility probabilities. We then conduct counterfactual experiments to evaluate how information policies that reduce belief biases affect aggregate fertility outcomes, compare their effectiveness to more conventional childcare subsidy policies, and investigate how decreasing costs and improved accessibility of egg-freezing and in-vitro fertilization could shape aggregate fertility outcomes.

The widespread adoption of work-from-home (WFH) has fundamentally reshaped how paid and unpaid work is integrated into daily routines. This paper examines the effects of WFH on intra-household task division, focusing on how it influences the allocation of work, childcare, and household production. A central question of this study is whether substantial differences exist between households with access to home-based flexible work and those without, and how these differences impact within-household inequality and gender roles. Using data from the Time Use Survey, I find that in single-earner households, WFH does not alleviate the burden on the non-working partner, sometimes worsening the imbalance in task-sharing. In contrast, in dual-earner households, the gender chores gap seems to fall in households where WFH is available.

To further investigate these dynamics, I extend a Collective Household Model by incorporating two additional channels: (i) the reallocation of time saved from commuting and (ii) the potential for ‘joint production’ through multitasking across work and domestic responsibilities. This model provides a framework for analyzing the evolution of intra-household inequality across different household types and enables counterfactual simulations to assess the broader implications of WFH availability.